The LED industry has entered the era of stable income from excessive competition
Government subsidies are narrowing the LED industry supply and demand structure will gradually improve
LED lighting, as an emerging industry, has been "favored" by the country since 2009. The subsidy is huge, and even the government subsidies received by some companies in one year account for half of the performance, turning losses into profits. Statistics show that taking San'an Optoelectronics as an example, as the LED industry "subsidies one brother", from 2010 to 2015, the amount of subsidies exceeded 3 billion yuan.
According to analysis, the expected development trend is that as the LED industry matures and reshuffles, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the government gradually adjusts its subsidy policy, and upstream chip subsidies are gradually narrowing. The narrowing of subsidies at the government level will inhibit the disorderly expansion of LED chip production capacity from the source of the industry chain, and it is expected that subsidies will be transferred to the LED lighting application end, which will pull the LED industry chain from the demand side, and the supply and demand structure of my country's LED industry chain will gradually improve .
The penetration of LED lighting market is accelerating. Small-pitch displays will usher in an explosion
From October 1, 2016, the sale and import of incandescent lamps for general lighting with 15W and above are prohibited. This is interpreted by the industry as the full roll out of the "white order ban", and the domestic market penetration rate of LED lighting products will further accelerate. It is expected that the domestic market penetration rate of LED lighting products will reach 48% in 2017.
2016 was a year of vigorous development of small-pitch LED screen products, and there was even a situation of out-of-stock in the upstream and short supply in the third quarter. In 2016, the total demand for small-pitch indoor and outdoor LEDs was 141.3 billion, while the current production capacity of small-pitch LEDs is around 70 billion, and there will still be a large supply and demand gap in the future. We expect that small-pitch displays will usher in an explosion in the next 2-3 years.
In 2017, the replacement rate of small-pitch LEDs to DLP can reach more than 40-50%, and the replacement rate is expected to reach 70%—80% by 2020.
The new blue ocean for LED manufacturers. Infrared LED/laser lighting welcomes unlimited business opportunities in 2017
The global introduction of biometric technology, including smart phones, tablets, and wearable devices, will continue to increase rapidly. The use of IRLED components in applications such as iris and facial recognition will make the future market have considerable growth potential. It is estimated that by 2020, the output value of IR LED (excluding sensors) will reach 710 million U.S. dollars (approximately RMB 4.711 billion), with a compound annual growth rate of 24%, becoming a new blue ocean for LED manufacturers.
On November 13, 2016, Nakamura Shuji Laser Lighting Laboratory was inaugurated in Shenzhen. The luminous area of laser illumination is smaller, the luminous efficiency is higher, the sensory is easier to focus and the irradiation distance is longer, and it can be widely used in automobile headlights and other fields. In automotive lighting applications, currently world-renowned automotive brands such as BMW and Audi are making efforts to apply this technology to new products. However, due to the high cost of laser lighting at present, the application rate is not high, and it is believed that it will be a major trend in the future.
Phase out backward production capacity, LED industry has entered the era of stable income from the era of excessive competition
Since the second half of 2016, with the continuous sharp rise of raw materials such as circuit boards and gold wires, as well as the increase in labor and rent costs, LED companies have also "shifted from a price war" to a "value war". Since 2016, the prices of LED chips and packages have increased successively, marking the end of the reshuffle of the overall LED industry chain, and the industry has entered an era of stable income from an era of excessive competition. It is expected that in 2017, under the price increase cycle of the overall LED industry with rising costs, some non-competitive small and medium-sized enterprises will gradually be eliminated from the market. In the future, orders will gradually be concentrated in major factories, and the phenomenon of Evergrande, a major player in the LED industry, will become more apparent.
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